In reviewing the youth marketing landscape over the past week, any debate over the rise of social networking ended as Facebook exceeded half a billion users. Within the month of August, the number of people on Facebook will be greater than the number of people that live on the North American continent.

Meanwhile, corporate marketing departments are hiring Millennials to manage their presence within social networks, eager to generate the next viral hit or deflect the next viral blowout. CMOs from major consumer organizations have their Facebook rep's number on speed dial as Facebook has convinced heavy marketing spenders that a custom campaign is the most effective way to generate awareness, trial, usage, loyalty, etc.

As their membership gets larger and larger, how can Facebook possibly represent everything to everyone? A number of newly formed social networks are being aimed at a growing number of niche markets. Imagine the deluge of business plans that mapped similarly exponential growth rates onto communities of divorcees, dog owners and left-handed Lithuanians (some of whom I consider to be among my best friends).

While some niches are bigger than others, tweens were an easily identified sub-segment, particularly as Facebook stumbled on the privacy front and parents were whipped into a protectionist stance by those who never miss a chance to demonize something new and unknown. While chasing niches may attract a marketable following, social networks are subject to the same arguments made by Theodore Vail, the first post-patent CEO of AT&T, who first described in 1908 the network effect: the exponential growth in value of a service (at the time, telephone) as the number of users increased. Given last week's announcement, it seems pretty certain that you'll be able to find your friends on Facebook.

One of the key findings of our recent Facebook fatigue survey was that Facebook is rapidly becoming a means to an end. Young males are using Facebook to facilitate other, more localized interests. Much like the early days of the web, we've reached a tipping point wherein being on Facebook is no longer the point. The point is all of the things that you cared about before you cared about being on Facebook.

As Don Tapscott described in Grown Up Digital, while once upon a time refrigeration was considered a technology, today most everyone focuses on the cold food stored inside. Friends and groups and applications will be focused on dating and spending and playing. It's no wonder that the hottest new social networking applications are the ones that reassert the value of physical presence.

As the world clamors aboard, we can anticipate that social networking will become as prevalent and as uneventful as a fridge, present within your school, your home, your friend's homes and your office. From this perspective, let me be the first to boldly predict that Facebook will eventually be acquired by GE.

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Ed. note: Dan Coates is president of Ypulse. See more here.

Categorized under: Youth Marketing

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